This is a typical swing trade for me. High Probability.
Price makes an Aggressive move to break support. Creating an Aggression Bar. Aggressive Volume combined with Aggressive Speed of the Move. Then reverses the break.
At the end of the session on the last day of the year – December 31st 2024 – Bitcoin futures sold hard into the close…breaking support with an Aggression Bar.
Then at the futures open on New Years Day, it proceeded to reverse the break down. It did not produce an Aggression bar on the way out on this 15min chart, so I was late to the party.
But, had I been watching the 5min chart, it was very nice with a low risk high potential reward entry.
Looking thorough every chart, there are always more trades than anyone can take. There’s just too much to watch, and too many opportunities that set up.
Like this one on the 5min that presented at the open on New Years Eve.
Arrow #1. Price broke out with an Aggression bar.
Arrow #2. Price failed the breakout and put in an Aggression Bar in the opposite direction.
Arrow #3. This trade would’ve given you some pain if you took the short, however, the conviction to stay in the trade would’ve worked out well.
The conviction to stay in the trade was the absence of another Aggression Bar at Arrow #3. If an Aggression Bar printed and I was short, I would have had to cover.
If that happened, I would not enter again. I’d simply go look at other charts. These are the kinds of trades that can whipsaw you to death.
Trading is not perfect.
It’s discipline and probabilities and following your system.